San Antonio, Texas — After several unusually dry and sunny days, a dramatic shift in the weather pattern is expected to bring rising humidity, storm chances, and potentially severe weather back to South Texas next week.
Meteorologists say the region’s recent stretch of pleasant conditions is highly unusual for mid-May, a time that typically marks one of the wettest and most storm-active periods of the year.
Unusually Dry Weather Coming to an End
Following storms that moved through the region last Sunday night, San Antonio experienced four straight days of low humidity, bright sunshine, and virtually no rain chances.
That type of weather is rare during this time of year, especially considering that May averages 4.4 inches of rainfall in San Antonio, making it the city’s rainiest month on average.
Now, forecasters say a major pattern change is underway as strong southerly winds begin pulling Gulf moisture back into Texas.
The return of moisture will cause humidity levels to steadily climb over the weekend, creating much more muggy and uncomfortable conditions across the region.
Humidity and Heat Expected to Intensify
Saturday is expected to bring weather conditions similar to recent days, but residents will likely begin noticing increased moisture in the air.
Morning temperatures are forecast to start in the lower 70s before climbing into the lower 90s by the afternoon. Wind gusts could also strengthen significantly, with speeds potentially reaching 25 to 30 mph later in the day.
By Sunday, forecasters warn that humidity levels could become oppressive.
Although actual air temperatures are expected to remain in the lower 90s, the added humidity will push “feels like” temperatures close to 100 degrees, with heat index values possibly peaking between 97 and 99 degrees.
Officials are urging residents planning outdoor activities to stay hydrated, avoid overexertion, and take regular breaks indoors or in shaded areas.
Storm Chances Begin Returning Sunday Night
Rain chances are expected to remain fairly low through most of the weekend, but weather conditions could begin changing Sunday night.
Forecasters say a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible after 7 p.m. Sunday, although rain chances in San Antonio are currently only around 20%.
Most areas are expected to stay dry initially, but the atmosphere will continue becoming increasingly unstable heading into the work week.
Thunderstorm Activity Expected to Increase
A broader weather system developing over the western United States is expected to play a key role in the changing forecast.
Meteorologists say a broad area of low atmospheric pressure will move eastward early next week and interact with the humid air mass over Texas, increasing the likelihood of scattered thunderstorms.
San Antonio currently has around a 30% chance of thunderstorms Monday, with rain chances increasing to 40% to 50% by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Scattered storms and daily rain opportunities could continue throughout much of the week and possibly into next weekend as well.
Severe Weather Threat Possible
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center indicates that San Antonio and the Hill Country have more than a 90% chance of receiving near-average or above-average rainfall during the week of May 19-24.
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Long-range forecast models suggest that multiple inches of rain may fall across the region, although meteorologists say it remains too early to determine which day could bring the heaviest rainfall.
Because mid- to late May is considered the peak of severe weather season in Texas, some storms may become strong enough to produce:
- Large hail
- Damaging wind gusts
- Heavy downpours
- Localized flooding concerns
Residents are encouraged to monitor forecasts closely as conditions continue evolving over the coming days.
Do you think South Texas is ready for another round of severe weather? Share your thoughts and local weather conditions in the comments below.
