MINNEAPOLIS, MN — Residents across the Upper Midwest should prepare for a significant shift in the atmosphere as spring warmth brings a surge of humidity—and a potentially prolonged period of stormy weather—starting this weekend.
Forecasters are tracking a weather system that could stall over the region, leading to several days of heavy rain and the first real threat of severe thunderstorms this season.
Unusually Consistent Forecast Models
While the heart of the system is still several days away, the National Weather Service (NWS) noted that long-range computer models are in “remarkable agreement” for a forecast 7–10 days out. This consistency gives meteorologists high confidence that a multi-day “soaking” is in the works, likely spanning from Sunday, April 12, through Wednesday, April 15.
“Precipitation looks to persist into the start of the week and perhaps last as long as the entirety of Monday through early Wednesday,” the NWS stated, pointing to a surface low-pressure system that may settle over the Midwest.
A Surge in Humidity and Storm Potential
According to Sven Sundgaard, a meteorologist with Bring Me The News, the catalyst for these storms is a sudden surge of moisture from the south. For the first time this spring, dew points are expected to climb into the 50s and near 60 by Sunday and Monday.
“It doesn’t have to be super humid, just 50s or higher, to create enough instability that we could see thunderstorms, maybe even our first chance of severe weather,” Sundgaard said.
Sundgaard warns that a broad area of the Upper Midwest could see 1 to 3 inches of rain as the system moves through.
Timing the Impact
While the exact path of the most intense storms is still being refined, here is the current outlook:
- Weekend: Humidity begins to rise; scattered showers possible.
- Monday: Currently identified as the day with the highest likelihood for thunderstorms.
- Monday Night – Wednesday: Potential for heavy, persistent rain as the system stalls.
Severe Weather Outlook
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has not yet issued formal “risk zones” for Minnesota, Iowa, or Wisconsin, but they are keeping a close watch on the corridor. In a recent update, the center noted that “scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into the Upper Midwest.”
With severe weather already hitting neighboring states like Iowa and Illinois earlier this month, Sundgaard suggests the North may be next. “It may be our turn here,” he added.
Local officials recommend residents keep an eye on updated forecasts through the weekend and ensure they have a way to receive weather alerts should the “severe” potential materialize.
