Evansville, Indiana — Repeated rounds of heavy rain could bring flash flooding and river rises to parts of southern Indiana and western Kentucky beginning March 7, raising concerns across the Ohio Valley ahead of St. Patrick’s Day.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlook issued February 27 for March 7–13, a broad area stretching across the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys shows a 60–70% probability of above-normal precipitation.
Even more concerning, a greater than 60% high-risk zone for heavy precipitation from March 7–10 places the Indiana–Kentucky corridor squarely in a favorable region for excessive rainfall.
Rainfall Totals Could Exceed 4 Inches
Forecast guidance suggests weekly rainfall totals may surpass 3 inches, with localized amounts approaching 4 to 5 inches in some areas.
Within the highest-risk zone, three-day rainfall totals could exceed 2 inches, increasing the likelihood of:
- Flash flooding in low-lying areas
- Rapid creek and stream rises
- Sharp increases along the Ohio River
- Standing water on roads and highways
Repeated downpours over already moist soils may significantly increase runoff efficiency.
Indiana Communities on Alert
In Indiana, Evansville and communities near the Wabash and White rivers could see elevated water levels if heavier rain bands repeatedly move across the region.
Flood-prone farmland and smaller tributaries may respond quickly to bursts of heavy rainfall.
Major routes including I-64 and I-69 could experience temporary water-covered stretches during heavier downpours.
Kentucky’s River Cities Watching Closely
In Kentucky, cities such as Louisville and Owensboro, which sit along the Ohio River, could feel the combined effects of local rainfall and upstream runoff.
Water levels along the Ohio River and its tributaries may rise steadily if rainfall totals reach the higher end of projections. The Western Kentucky Parkway and other low-lying roadways may also see brief travel disruptions.
Warmer Temperatures Could Worsen Runoff
The 8–14 day temperature outlook for March 7–13 shows a 70–80% probability of above-normal temperatures across much of the Ohio Valley.
- Accelerate snowmelt farther north
- Increase runoff into the Ohio River basin
- Extend the duration of elevated river levels
This combination of heavy rainfall and mild temperatures could amplify flood concerns through mid-March.
Flooding Possible Through March 13
Flooding risks may persist through at least March 13, especially if rainfall trends toward higher-end model scenarios. Officials say river advisories and flood warnings are likely if totals exceed expectations.
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Residents in flood-prone areas are urged to:
- Monitor local forecasts and river gauges
- Avoid driving through water-covered roads
- Prepare emergency supplies if necessary
With back-to-back rain chances and warming conditions, the Indiana–Kentucky border region faces a heightened flood threat as March begins.
Are you located near the Ohio River or its tributaries? Share how you’re preparing for the potential heavy rain and rising water — respectfully — in the comments below.
